The most anticipated drug comes from a biotech that many of us may have been unaware of, Karuna Therapeutics.
That all changed when Bristol Myers Squibb snapped up the biotech in late 2023 for a major $14 billion, with the jewel in the crown of that deal being KarXT, a new type of drug to treat schizophrenia.
Evaluate, which estimates sales for each drug by 2028, projects $2.8 billion in sales for this particular drug, making it the highest estimate among its top 10 most anticipated drug approvals for the year.
If you’ve been following Evaluate Vantage’s annual preview reports over the past two years, you’ll find a familiar drug in number two in the form of Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s hopeful donanemab. This drug has had a long and tortuous path toward a potential approval, and Evaluate’s estimates for its sales potential have continually been revised downwards. Lilly will hope 2024 will be its year.
The third most anticipated drug launch comes from another small biotech, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, and its non-alcoholic fatty liver drug, resmetiron. Treating this condition, typically caused by obesity and capable of leading to liver disease and failure, has long been predicted to be a major source of revenue for the biopharma industry. However, numerous trial failures and weak results over the past five years have revealed the disease to be a much more challenging adversary for drug development.
Madrigal will hope its THR-β agonist drug will prove the be the breakout drug NASH needs and success where so many others have failed.
Just as last year, this preview comes with caution over sales estimates; not on the estimates themselves, but a more conservative forecasting given just how tricky translating research into a regulatory approval has become in recent years.
This is reflected in the overall total potential sales by 2028 for all the top 10 drugs, which, for 2024, amount to just $15.2 billion. This marks a decline from 2023's already low overall total of $17.5 billion.
Both figures are a huge drop from 2022 when the sales potential for the top 10 drugs from the Vantage list came in at a much meatier $26.9 billion. In two years, we’ve dropped more than $11 billion in sales potential as caution over new drug launches becomes a hardened trend.
Company: Karuna Therapeutics
Company: Eli Lilly
Company: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals
Company: Merck & Co.
Companies: Daiichi Sankyo/AstraZeneca
Company: BridgeBio Pharma
Company: Moderna
Company: ImmunityBio
Company: Verona Pharma
Company: Geron
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